What Could Happen After a No-Deal Brexit | WSJ

What Could Happen After a No-Deal Brexit | WSJ


– [Saabira] When I buy
groceries here in England, I usually like to pick
up things like apples, peppers, cheese, and wine, but that’s now, before Brexit. If Britain were to crash out
of the EU without a deal, these products might be hard to find in my local supermarket,
so some economists say my grocery basket may look more like this. For the last few years,
government agencies and companies across the country have been
studying what might happen in case of a no-deal Brexit. – It’s better for all of
us if we can leave the EU with a withdrawal agreement in place. The government needs to be
prepared for every eventuality, the departments all working on the basis of a reasonable worst-case scenario. – The government has been doing a lot to try and prepare for a no-deal Brexit, but there is a limit to what the UK government
can do on its own. – According to government documents, Bank of England reports,
and other studies, buying groceries would
only be one of my problems. Studies warn we could
see home prices plummet by as much as 30%, medicine shortages, and a jump in inflation. First, let’s explain what a
no-deal Brexit actually is. In 2016, Britain voted to
leave the European Union. Hence, Brexit. Now, Prime Minister Boris
Johnson says he’s working to achieve what his predecessor,
Theresa May, couldn’t. (crowd jeering) – Nothing– – [Saabira] Strike an
exit deal with the EU that Parliament can get behind, too. If he can’t, well, Johnson said he’s pulling
the UK out anyway. – We’re leaving on the 31st
of October, no ifs or buts. – [Saabira] If that happens, Britain would leave the
European Union overnight with no transition period to
ease out of its membership. That would be a no-deal Brexit, and according to a government document known as Operation Yellowhammer, the consequences could be pretty dire. – Food shortages, crisis at the border, even the risk of rioting across the UK. – Food supplies and the economy as a whole could be hit, while government
spending could dry sharply. So let’s go back to those groceries. This pile is what we produce in the UK, and this is what we import.
(tense electronic music) In a no-deal scenario, these
fresh fruits and vegetables from other EU countries could go bad before they even reach the UK. That’s because thousands of shipments would have to go through
new customs checks which could cause traffic
jams and huge delays. William Bain of the
British Retail Consortium explains that the UK’s
particularly vulnerable to food shortages. Could you talk about how the UK stacks up against other countries,
like, say, the U.S., in terms of our dependence
on food imports, particularly from the EU? – So we’ve been a net
importer of foods, really, for the last few decades. I think consumer tastes are
not going to change too much and we’re still going to
want to have our sandwiches with some tomato in it in December as much as
we do in June or July. – [Saabira] For British exporters, a no-deal could also
mean tariffs on products like cheese and beef,
which, retailers say, could see levies of nearly 50%. So how can Britain keep
buying and selling goods across its borders? One answer could be
negotiate new trade deals. As of September 2019, the UK government said it signed 14 new trade deals. 25 others are still in the works, but replacing the EU bloc, which is by far the UK’s
main trading partner, won’t be easy.
(dramatic mallet percussion) – One of the difficulties
for knowing exactly what the impact of coming out of a
deep free trade agreement is is that countries haven’t
really done this in the past. There have been lots of
examples of countries trying to integrate
their trade more closely. There’s essentially no examples of countries moving in
the other direction. Perhaps the only example in the past was the breakup of the USSR. That was a single economic bloc that then broke up, but
really apart from that, there’s no past precedent to look back to. – [Saabira] The Bank of
England’s latest estimates say, in a worst-case scenario,
GDP could fall by 5.5%, unemployment could almost double to 7%, and inflation could peak at 5.25% Other reports disagree on precisely how much the economy
will be hurt by Brexit, but the vast majority of economists agree it wouldn’t be good for
the UK’s economic growth. Adding a no-deal into
the equation, even worse. So what is the government doing about it? – They currently have
about 17,000 civil servants working on this specifically,
and that is everything from trying to make sure that
there are systems in place at the borders, at the
ports, to ease the flow of lorries going through to France. – [Saabira] If the UK does
leave the EU without a deal, the UK government may have to borrow around $37 billion every year from fiscal ’21 onwards,
according to one estimate. Those who support a no-deal
say the investment is worth it because it will lay the
groundwork for a new, stronger UK, but those who oppose no-deal say there will be too much damage. – Even with those best mitigations, it doesn’t take away from the harm that’s gonna be caused to the
consumer by a no-deal Brexit. – Brexit opened up a huge amount of debate about the UK’s trading relationships, not only with the EU, but
with the rest of the world. – [Saabira] We’ll see what
happens on the Brexit deadline, but like many Brits, I
may want to stockpile some of this stuff just in
case I can’t get it anymore. (quietly tense mallet percussion music)

100 thoughts on “What Could Happen After a No-Deal Brexit | WSJ

  1. In 2018 Britain exported over 24 Billion Pounds worth of drugs and medicines.!….

    Two-thirds of the value of medicines produced globally is accounted for by firms with headquarters in just five countries – the USA, Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

    Do some research before swallowing MSM scaremongering.

  2. Don't worry, after saying Yellowhammer was out of date we got the new version which has an updated name! It's no longer the  "base case" but "reasonable worst case", problems solved!

    I mean they still sent it to Scotland with "base case" but they renamed it right after that soooo problems solved!

  3. This seems like a good thing, using our own food to balance the payment defecit, as well as providing farmers with a larger marke

  4. More meinkampf propaganda! To create fear in the masses!! This people is true fascism! ! And all should always remember the Nazis where liberals aka left not right wing!! Open your eye's!! And uphold democracy and a democratic vote!

  5. Always good to see a bunch of morons worry about inflation being caused by brexit, when these same morons have sat by while the bank of England targets inflation with low interest rates. The same experts that thought open door immigration and the euro were a great idea. I'm sure all the liberal trendies will cry over not getting their fancy french cheese but i'll be just fine with taking liberty back. Nigel bless.

  6. Wow! You mean that BREXIT means that all apple growers and vintners will forevermore refuse to sell their products to the british consumers and an entire market will go without sellers to provide products that they are in the business to sell? I thought that the Wall Street Journal was supposed to understand economics.

  7. What a load of nonsense. British cheese and wine producers etc will be quids in supplying the home market. Project fear again – complete nonsense.

  8. Dear Brits,
    Don't worry about food outages. You should worry about meds outages. After No-Deal-Brexit any medicine authorised in the EU will need a reauthorization in the UK. Now guess if pharmaceutical companies will raise these extra costs for your small market?

  9. They're just fearmongering. The supply and demand will adjust soon, no need to scare people with doomsday scenarios

  10. All alarmism. Won't even notice. This is England. Bad things can't happen to us. Actions having consequences only applies to other countries. (Seriously, foreigners, that's actually the way English people think.)

  11. Yes because the only place that you can get fruit and vegetables is the EU… I swear the wjs thinks we are toddlers. Also why would food go bad? Border checks are sample checks and they happen even now for products coming out of EU. What are you talking about? Also inflation?! The UK will become the most stable economy in Europe after the EU implodes, because that's what is gonna happen if the UK leaves. Especially if access to investment capital from the City is taken from the table. Germany used to canibalize the southerners but now it has expanded to its allies. With trade wars raging across the globe EU will become isolated without UK investments. Hey WSJ how about you read the WSJ first

  12. brexit is not about groceries or jobs or businesses, its about the sovereignty Great Britain !!!! pure and simple.

    its about who calls the shots in the UK

  13. The people of Britain are among the most overweight in Europe anyway, so it's probably a good thing that food is rationed for a while.

  14. The basket is an illustration of why the UK should force the hand of these EU overlords. EU farmers will never accept being shut out of one of the biggest markets in Europe…

  15. Of course Brexiteers mostly prefer the Daily Mail and The Sun for their news and analysis, they are not going to believe in anything a boring organ like WSJ has to say. Plus The Sun has more bare breasts.

  16. 지금은 서로 협력해도 부족한데 이 상황에서 고립을 선택하겠다니… 영국 국민들은 생각이 있는가?

  17. Scare tactics, all the people involved in transport state no issues will happen as they will do the paper work required? So no bottle necks…. we are not leaving planet earth, things will still run as usual…. it might be some blips along the way but the UK and EU will have to work together to get a deal… the EU want to pushish a member for leaving so other members that are considering to leave Don t…. it's all smoke and mirrors.

  18. I lost all of my respect for the British government and politics. It turned out to be a bunch of snobs hiding behind a posh accent in fancy buildings….

  19. What's an absolute load of bullocks total scaremongering. Don't buy French wine or cheese get New Zealand or Australia or Chilean. Or has my mode oven work mate is just said Moldovan wine which is not part of the EU.

  20. At 2:15, you said “these fruits and vegetables are from other EU countries”.

    The granny-smith apples package states “South Africa”.

  21. They wont be hard to come by because we can still buy from EU after leaving you complete idiots, its all just scare mongering by remoaners

  22. Scare monger, UK is the 6th largest economy, they want our business more than we’d need theirs, 30% off house prices…I may actually get on the ladder rather than rent from some rich guy who owns 10 houses. Food shortages!? Looking at some of our kids we need that. Plus we can grow our own, necessity breeds creation and we’re an inventive bunch. No one mentions that the internet was created and developed in the UK so…

  23. Yet more boring scare mongering propaganda (think thats how you spell it lol)! I believe that ALL the gaps in the market created by brexit will be seen as opportunities here in the UK. And for every business that goes under because it relied on the europe and failed to implement contingency plans, one or more UK entrepeneurs will pop up! All were being force fed is negative outcomes. Hasnt everyone noticed that all information/headlines have to be negative/bad to get in the news?! THE UK WILL BE FINE. It will adapt, along with all its citizens, and hold its head a little higher with self respect while doing so. Personally I think any 'group' that makes it this difficult to leave is a borderline dictatorship! Were better off out. o/ 🥳

  24. Geez only the import of food from Europe will be affected, it won't affect trade from outside the EU, we can still trade with the US and Africa no problem, it's only EU countries well have issues with.

  25. When all the bad things happen, blame it on immigrants and brown people, mark my words this is exactly what is gonna happen

  26. C'mon WSJ, you're better than this.

    Yellowhammer is a cooked-up piece of biased fear mongering concocted by the extremely pro-remain left wing Civil Service.

    Do not buy the lie

  27. corporatists here in the u.s. always throw the same tired argument as well. they tell us if we regulate a certain service or good then it will disappear forever. they tell us if we raise wages then businesses will fire everyone. they tell us if we raise taxes then then wwiii will kick off. they threaten a tantrum if try to cut their profits. in reality exporters will not mind losing a bit of money. actually, they wont have a choice but to suck it up. will the wine industry of france simply miss out on 50 million potential buyers in the uk? nope. thats insane. the sellers will desperately work out a deal.

  28. So everything is about money nowadays. Nevermind that the native population is slowly dieing off as long as we can have cheaper things..

  29. This project fear is ridiculous.
    I bet.
    There will be NO delays to imports.
    There will be NO slowdown in economic growth. It will almost certainly grow.
    We WILL still have the £39 billion divorce fee
    AND a net saving of £12 billion currently handed over each year.
    What’s more we will be the masters of our own destiny not subservient to a European superstate.
    The future if we hold our nerve and actually leave is great.

  30. Sorry but this is somewhat fear mongering. We dont really know what will happen untill it does. No need to get overly worried over somthing that might not happen. Notice the use "could" "possibly" and "might".

  31. The United State of America eliminated Capitalism in my lifetime. That just does not come back. Signed Joseph Matthias Zao aka Joseph Yerkes Jeanes II SSN 225-9058

  32. Wouldn’t buying UK only produce significantly reduce the carbon footprint of our grocery shop? I try to buy in season and British. As regards to wine, I’ll stick with Aussie Shiraz…… I know, carbon disaster!

  33. This is nonsense what are Europe going to do with there fruit and veg if we don't buy it dump it never heard so much rubbish in all my life

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